Always blowing bubbles

I was never very good at econometrics.  I found the study of economics to be an intensely interesting pursuit, but I could never quite grasp the mathematical side that seems to now be an all encompassing part of the profession.  From a basic level, I could understand all of the mathematical theories, but as it became increasingly complex, I found it to be increasingly convoluted and my interest levels waned.

Instead, I found the philosophical and historical side of economics to be a far more interesting and relevant pursuit.  I enjoyed what was an intensely social analysis of why things were and how things would develop.

I look at our current world of cheap money with confusion.

Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble

The aim of restarting global economies through cheap money has driven up asset prices for certain, but has it actually achieved the desired result of restarting economies?  Are businesses booming?  Are people seizing their opportunites to start new ventures?

It doesn't really seem like that is happening.

Cheap money is meant to encourage people to invest and to create new businesses.  Instead, it seems that the gains that have been made have been largely through the increase in the prices of existing assets like property and shares.  That isn't real economic growth. That is merely the shifting of wealth from one group to another.

So why isn't this working?  I actually think that the reason is actually very simple.

People are lazy.

I should also add that they are relatively unimaginative as well.  When given cheap money, the natural instincts of people will be to seek out the easiest assets to invest into.  They will not be starting businesses or building labour intensive infrastructure.  Instead, they seek out the easiest ways to make a return and that's through assets like shares and property.  There is no work, there is no innovation, there is no development. 

The rivers turn red

It seems almost biblical to hear that rivers would run red.

River turns blood red overnight

However, what is truly horrifying is that we as a species have reached a point in our development where we can impact the world around us to such a terrifying and detrimental degree.  How long can we continue in such a state before we tip the delicate equilibrium that exists in nature beyond a point that can be recovered from?

I once read that a society thrives when old men plant trees the shade of which they will never experience. Our society seems content with doing the opposite and robbing the future of any assets they should have had.

Technological reliance

Apparently we came close to being pushed back to the stone age.

'Pushed back to the Stone Age': massive solar storm missed Earth by just one week

Our almost total reliance on all things computerised makes me wonder how much of a jolt it would actually take to completely crumble our society.  Would we be able to survive the loss of our technology?  Would we even be able to prove who we are and what we own without technology anymore?

The blame game

With all the signs of the impending doom (Gaza War, Ukranian/Russian War, Ebola outbreak, planes falling out of the sky...), how long is it until people start to look to shift the blame?

If history has taught us anything, it is that in times of despair and crisis, the world leaders will look to give the people someone to hate and blame. In the end, it's good policitcs, right?

With the recent updates in the Ebola outbreak (you know, how that guy with Ebola got on a plan, vomitted eeverywhere, made a stopover and then landed in Nigeria - which now means Ebola has spread outside of remote African villages), it is only a matter of time until the leaders of the western world look to blame the African people and government.

Considering the people of these remote villages who are infected with Ebola are turning away the WHO in favor of witch doctors, it shouldn't be hard for Obama or Abbot to ensure there is a villan in all this...

If you think the outbreaks and wars aren't bad enough, wait until the citizens start taking things into their own hands...

It's the end of the world as we know it

Paper castles crumbling

Something isn't right in the global economy.

I have stood by and watched silently as share markets and property prices have continued to rocket skywards, even when I see problems everywhere in the "little things".  Globally, wages haven't improved significantly.  Unemployment continues to be a major problem that is now evolving into something more insidious as the unemployed get moved into increasingly low paying and menial jobs, the entry level jobs that once existed for graduates are disappearing and many of those jobs that do remain are being sent offshore to cheaper jurisdictions.  Cost of living continues to rise and people seem to be stuck treading water.

All of it seems to be driven by the same old story of cheap money.

However, it seems like I'm not the only one concerned about the direction we are all heading.

Sharemarkets set for biggest tumble since GFC, says veteran investor Han K. Lee

Is it possible for markets to continue to grow without the fundamental problems with our society being resolved?  Or will there be another innocuous event that will trigger another even more devastating meltdown? 

Worthless world

This is nothing particularly new, but the size of it is astounding.

Amazon, Twitter, JB Hifi and Groupon may be worth billions but their profit margins are tiny

How many people today live in paper castles?  How many people have their entire lives supported on the back of non-existent wealth?  How much of a shock would it really take for these companies to go from being enormous entities that are making little money to being enormous entities that are making enormous losses?

What happens to the world when all these emperors are found to be naked?

Do you hear the people sing?

How long will people be happy with growing global inequality?

United States Is Now the Most Unequal of All Advanced Economies

There have always been rich and poor, but the sheer size of the discrepancy is now truly breathtaking.  To add to this problem, the mass of the middle class who once made up the bulk of the Western democratic nations are now being hollowed up.  It is as if feudalism is slowly returning before our eyes and robbing us of the last two centuries of development.

When people are unhappy, they will accept it for a while.  But when they begin to lose hope with what is before them, will they continue to accept it?  Or will they take alternative actions that could be more devastating and terrifying for us all?

Pandemics are scary

Well isn't this just terrifying.

There is now a major ebola epidemic in West Africa, one of the biggest if not the biggest ever on record.  Ebola is a particularly terrifying disease, with a 90% mortality rate for those who are unfortunate enough to contract it.

Ebola toll jumps to 467, worst outbreak on record

With such a high mortality rate, it isn't at all surprising that numerous movies and pieces of fiction have centred on ebola or a mutation of ebola as the cause of the next great global pandemic.  The knowledge that infection is an almost certain death sentence creates a terrifying image of desperation and inevitability that cannot be dismissed.  It defeats optimism and kills hope.

What would happen if transmission of this disease were to suddenly become easier? What would happen if the outbreak were to jump to a place other than the remote parts of West Africa to say London or Paris?

Are you a germaphobe?

There has hardly been any reporting done on the MERS outbreak that has been affecting the Middle East.

Big jump in MERS cases reported

With the disease occurring largely in Saudi Arabia, who knows what the true figures are?

Could this be the beginning of global pandemic that sweeps across borders?  It's a terrifying thought.  There doesn't seem to have been a truly global outbreak since the Spanish Flu after the First World War.  With the level of global connection our society now has, it wouldn't take long for such a pandemic to take hold and spread.

The damage wrought by the disease itself could be minor relative to the complete chaos and terror that it could create as well.  I remember clearly the level hysteria and panic that occurred during the height of the SARS outbreak and the recent swine flu scare.  Neither of these proved to be the doomsday events feared and yet they were still significant enough to cause people to go just a touch crazy.  Something a bit more real could send people completely over the edge.

Putin's posturing

It always seems like Russia is the impending cause of doom for the known world.

Ukraine: Putin aide brands Poroshenko 'Nazi' ahead of EU deal

Be it as the victim of Mongol Hordes, French bayonets or German soldiers on the march, or as the aggressor against terrified Poles or non-compliant Afghanis, the Russians are always somehow at the very centre of global events taking us to the brink of complete and utter doom.

Recent times have been no different as Putin has demonstrated at the expense of Ukraine.

The ability of Russia to annexe Crimea with impunity has drawn unsurprising parallels to the Nazi Germany and the appeasement policies that were adopted by the Allied powers leading up to World War 2.

Whatever the final outcome, the growing aggression of Russia coupled by the disdain for blood shown by the West is just another sign that we are all heading for fun and turbulent times.